Tail Competition Explains Scaling in Best-of-N Sampling for Verifiable Problems

Best-of-N sampling is a simple inference-time scaling strategy for large language models, yet its behavior under incomplete reward models remains poorly understood. We study Best-of-N as a competition between the extreme reward tails of correct and incorrect responses. This view shows that success depends not only on the probability of sampling a correct response, but also on whether correct responses dominate incorrect ones in the upper tail. Using extreme value theory, we characterize three asymptotic regimes: correct-tail-dominant, incorrect-tail-dominant, and critical explaining both monotonic gains and reward-hacking-induced degradation. We further derive finite-sample scaling laws for representative reward distributions, showing that, under Gaussian rewards, incorrect responses with sufficiently large variance can dominate selection even when their mean reward is lower. Unlike oracle selection, convergence with an incomplete selector can be polynomial rather than exponential. Finally, we propose a lightweight tail-tension criterion to estimate when additional sampling may become harmful. Experiments on synthetic data and real reward model scores validate the predicted regimes, scaling laws, and diagnostic behavior, suggesting that tail competition provides a unified lens on Best-of-N sampling for verifiable problems.