Geometric Velocity Regularity for Flow Matching on Manifold-Concentrated Data

Flow matching learns a velocity field whose ordinary differential equation transports a simple reference distribution to a data distribution. Existing theory typically controls this velocity through ambient, isotropic Lipschitz regularity, which becomes extremely pessimistic when data concentrate near a low-dimensional manifold. In this regime, standard error bounds can blow up drastically near the terminal time and fail to explain why flow matching should remain stable. We study flow matching for distributions obtained by smoothing a density on a compact manifold with small Gaussian noise. Our first result is a tube-local Lipschitz regularity theorem showing that, on the relevant neighborhood of the manifold, the population flow-matching velocity has a Jacobian bound that grows only at the inverse effective noise scale. This improves substantially over the stronger singular behavior suggested by existing ambient analyses. Our second result gives a directional description of the velocity Jacobian: tangential directions exhibit mild growth, normal directions are strongly contractive, and tangential-normal coupling is lower order. This reveals that the apparent singularity is highly structured rather than uniformly harmful. These results provide geometric foundations for sharper stability guarantees and suggest a path toward intrinsic-dimension generalization bounds for flow matching on manifold-concentrated data.