Implicit Beliefs as Scalable Process Rewards for Strategic Persuasion

Training large language models (LLMs) for multi-turn strategic persuasion faces two coupled obstacles: (i) realistic simulation of psychologically grounded persuadees, and (ii) dense, faithful supervision for credit assignment in strategic dialogues. Outcome-only rewards are sparse and uninformative about which conversational moves drove success, while LLM-judge process rewards are expensive and decoupled from the underlying interaction dynamics. We address both challenges with a unified framework. First, we introduce PersuArena, a persuasion simulation environment that produces realistic, non-monotonic trajectories. Second, building directly on this environment, we propose Process Rewards via Online Belief Elicitation for Relative Policy Optimization (Probe-RPO), an online RL framework that converts the persuadee's internal state into dense process rewards. At each turn, three introspective probes are read from the frozen persuadee's logits, yielding a multi-dimensional reward signal that is faithfully aligned with persuasion dynamics. With extensive experiments on PersuArena spanning healthcare, financial advising, workplace management, education, and personal relationships, we demonstrate that our Probe-RPO achieves the full acceptance rate of 52.5%, compared with the 35.8% for the strongest GRPO ablation and 25.8% for the best off-the-shelf LLM. We also conduct comprehensive analyses on the generalization across persuadee models and the persuasion dynamics across conversations. Our work offers a promising paradigm that can provide effective process supervision for strategic dialogue.