Science Is Falling Behind the Frontier: Foundation Model Adoption Across Half a Million Papers

We present the first large-scale analysis of AI foundation model usage in science - not just citations or keywords. We find that adoption has grown rapidly, at nearly-exponential rates, with the highest uptake in Linguistics, Computer Science, and Engineering. Vision models are the most used foundation models in science, although language models' share is growing. Open-weight models dominate. As AI builders increase the parameter counts of their models, scientists have followed suit but at a much slower rate: in 2015, the mean foundation model adopted in science was 5.4x larger than the mean model being built; by 2024 that relationship had reversed, with the mean model built 6.9x larger than the mean model adopted. We also present suggestive evidence that scientists' use of these smaller models may be limiting them from getting the full benefits of AI-enabled science, as papers that use larger models appear in higher-impact journals and accrue more citations.