A prevailing belief in attack and defense community is that the higher flatness of adversarial examples enables their better cross-model transferability, leading to a growing interest in employing sharpness-aware minimization and its variants. However, the theoretical relationship between the transferability of adversarial examples and their flatness has not been well established, making the belief questionable. To bridge this gap, we embark on a theoretical investigation and, for the first time, derive a theoretical bound for the transferability of adversarial examples with few practical assumptions. Our analysis challenges this belief by demonstrating that the increased flatness of adversarial examples does not necessarily guarantee improved transferability. Moreover, building upon the theoretical analysis, we propose TPA, a Theoretically Provable Attack that optimizes a surrogate of the derived bound to craft adversarial examples. Extensive experiments across widely used benchmark datasets and various real-world applications show that TPA can craft more transferable adversarial examples compared to state-of-the-art baselines. We hope that these results can recalibrate preconceived impressions within the community and facilitate the development of stronger adversarial attack and defense mechanisms.