Machine learning-based estimates of poverty and wealth are increasingly being used to guide the targeting of humanitarian aid and the allocation of social assistance. However, the ground truth labels used to train these models are typically borrowed from existing surveys that were designed to produce national statistics -- not to train machine learning models. Here, we test whether adaptive sampling strategies for ground truth data collection can improve the performance of poverty prediction models. Through simulations, we compare the status quo sampling strategies (uniform at random and stratified random sampling) to alternatives that prioritize acquiring training data based on model uncertainty or model performance on sub-populations. Perhaps surprisingly, we find that none of these active learning methods improve over uniform-at-random sampling. We discuss how these results can help shape future efforts to refine machine learning-based estimates of poverty.

The accurate characterization of the severity of the wildfire event strongly contributes to the characterization of the fuel conditions in fire-prone areas, and provides valuable information for disaster response. The aim of this study is to develop an autonomous system built on top of high-resolution multispectral satellite imagery, with an advanced deep learning method for detecting burned area change. This work proposes an initial exploration of using an unsupervised model for feature extraction in wildfire scenarios. It is based on the contrastive learning technique SimCLR, which is trained to minimize the cosine distance between augmentations of images. The distance between encoded images can also be used for change detection. We propose changes to this method that allows it to be used for unsupervised burned area detection and following downstream tasks. We show that our proposed method outperforms the tested baseline approaches.

Forecasting the state of vegetation in response to climate and weather events is a major challenge. Its implementation will prove crucial in predicting crop yield, forest damage, or more generally the impact on ecosystems services relevant for socio-economic functioning, which if absent can lead to humanitarian disasters. Vegetation status depends on weather and environmental conditions that modulate complex ecological processes taking place at several timescales. Interactions between vegetation and different environmental drivers express responses at instantaneous but also time-lagged effects, often showing an emerging spatial context at landscape and regional scales. We formulate the land surface forecasting task as a strongly guided video prediction task where the objective is to forecast the vegetation developing at very fine resolution using topography and weather variables to guide the prediction. We use a Convolutional LSTM (ConvLSTM) architecture to address this task and predict changes in the vegetation state in Africa using Sentinel-2 satellite NDVI, having ERA5 weather reanalysis, SMAP satellite measurements, and topography (DEM of SRTMv4.1) as variables to guide the prediction. Ours results highlight how ConvLSTM models can not only forecast the seasonal evolution of NDVI at high resolution, but also the differential impacts of weather anomalies over the baselines. The model is able to predict different vegetation types, even those with very high NDVI variability during target length, which is promising to support anticipatory actions in the context of drought-related disasters.

Geospatial Information Systems are used by researchers and Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Response (HADR) practitioners to support a wide variety of important applications. However, collaboration between these actors is difficult due to the heterogeneous nature of geospatial data modalities (e.g., multi-spectral images of various resolutions, timeseries, weather data) and diversity of tasks (e.g., regression of human activity indicators or detecting forest fires). In this work, we present a roadmap towards the construction of a general-purpose neural architecture (GPNA) with a geospatial inductive bias, pre-trained on large amounts of unlabelled earth observation data in a self-supervised manner. We envision how such a model may facilitate cooperation between members of the community. We show preliminary results on the first step of the roadmap, where we instantiate an architecture that can process a wide variety of geospatial data modalities and demonstrate that it can achieve competitive performance with domain-specific architectures on tasks relating to the U.N.'s Sustainable Development Goals.

Vulnerability and risk assessment of neighborhoods is essential for effective disaster preparedness. Existing traditional systems, due to dependency on time-consuming and cost-intensive field surveying, do not provide a scalable way to decipher warnings and assess the precise extent of the risk at a hyper-local level. In this work, machine learning was used to automate the process of identifying dwellings and their type to build a potentially more effective disaster vulnerability assessment system. First, satellite imageries of low-income settlements and vulnerable areas in India were used to identify 7 different dwelling types. Specifically, we formulated the dwelling type classification as a semantic segmentation task and trained a U-net based neural network model, namely TernausNet, with the data we collected. Then a risk score assessment model was employed, using the determined dwelling type along with an inundation model of the regions. The entire pipeline was deployed to multiple locations prior to natural hazards in India in 2020. Post hoc ground-truth data from those regions was collected to validate the efficacy of this model which showed promising performance. This work can aid disaster response organizations and communities at risk by providing household-level risk information that can inform preemptive actions.

Rapid assessment after a natural disaster is key for prioritizing emergency resources. In the case of landslides, rapid assessment involves determining the extent of the area affected and measuring the size and location of individual landslides. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) is an active remote sensing technique that is unaffected by weather conditions. Deep Learning algorithms can be applied to SAR data, but, training them requires large labeled datasets. In the case of landslides, these datasets are laborious to produce for segmentation, and often they are not available for the specific region in which the event occurred. Here, we study how deep learning algorithms for landslide segmentation on SAR products can benefit from pretraining on a simpler task and from data from different regions. The method we explore consists of two training stages. First, we learn the task of identifying whether a SAR image contains any landslides or not. Then, we learn to segment in a sparsely labeled scenario where half of the data do not contain landslides. We test whether the inclusion of feature embeddings derived from stage-1 helps with landslide detection in stage-2. We find that it leads to minor improvements in the Area Under the Precision-Recall Curve, but also to a significantly lower false positive rate in areas without landslides and an improved estimate of the average number of landslide pixels in a chip. A more accurate pixel count allows to identify the most affected areas with higher confidence. This could be valuable in rapid response scenarios where prioritization of resources at a global scale is more important.

Multi-band aerial images are invaluable for remote sensing applications. Paired with modern deep learning methods, this modality has great potential utility in humanitarian assistance and disaster recovery efforts, paired with modern deep learning methods. However, state-of-the-art deep learning methods require large-scale annotations like ImageNet, and there are no equivalent multi-band image datasets. As an alternative to transfer learning on such data with few annotations, we apply complex-valued co-domain symmetric models to classify real-valued multi-band images. Our extensive experimentation on 8-band xView data shows that our ultra-lean model trained on xView from scratch without data augmentations can outperform ResNet with data augmentation and modified transfer learning on xView. Our work is the first to demonstrate the value of complex-valued deep learning on real-valued multi-band spectral data.