Can evolving networks be inferred and modeled without directly observing their nodes and edges? In many applications, the edges of a dynamic network might not be observed, but one can observe the dynamics of stochastic cascading processes (e.g., information diffusion, virus propagation) occurring over the unobserved network. While there have been efforts to infer networks based on such data, providing a generative probabilistic model that is able to identify the underlying time-varying network remains an open question. Here we consider the problem of inferring generative dynamic network models based on network cascade diffusion data. We propose a novel framework for providing a non-parametric dynamic network model---based on a mixture of coupled hierarchical Dirichlet processes---based on data capturing cascade node infection times. Our approach allows us to infer the evolving community structure in networks and to obtain an explicit predictive distribution over the edges of the underlying network---including those that were not involved in transmission of any cascade, or are likely to appear in the future. We show the effectiveness of our approach using extensive experiments on synthetic as well as real-world networks.

Tensor decompositions are fundamental tools for multiway data analysis. Existing approaches, however, ignore the valuable temporal information along with data, or simply discretize them into time steps so that important temporal patterns are easily missed. Moreover, most methods are limited to multilinear decomposition forms, and hence are unable to capture intricate, nonlinear relationships in data. To address these issues, we formulate event-tensors, to preserve the complete temporal information for multiway data, and propose a novel Bayesian nonparametric decomposition model. Our model can (1) fully exploit the time stamps to capture the critical, causal/triggering effects between the interaction events, (2) flexibly estimate the complex relationships between the entities in tensor modes, and (3) uncover hidden structures from their temporal interactions. For scalable inference, we develop a doubly stochastic variational Expectation-Maximization algorithm to conduct an online decomposition. Evaluations on both synthetic and real-world datasets show that our model not only improves upon the predictive performance of existing methods, but also discovers interesting clusters underlying the data.

A longstanding problem in machine learning is to find unsupervised methods that can learn the statistical structure of high dimensional signals. In recent years, GANs have gained much attention as a possible solution to the problem, and in particular have shown the ability to generate remarkably realistic high resolution sampled images. At the same time, many authors have pointed out that GANs may fail to model the full distribution ("mode collapse") and that using the learned models for anything other than generating samples may be very difficult.

In this paper, we examine the utility of GANs in learning statistical models of images by comparing them to perhaps the simplest statistical model, the Gaussian Mixture Model. First, we present a simple method to evaluate generative models based on relative proportions of samples that fall into predetermined bins. Unlike previous automatic methods for evaluating models, our method does not rely on an additional neural network nor does it require approximating intractable computations. Second, we compare the performance of GANs to GMMs trained on the same datasets. While GMMs have previously been shown to be successful in modeling small patches of images, we show how to train them on full sized images despite the high dimensionality. Our results show that GMMs can generate realistic samples (although less sharp than those of GANs) but also capture the full distribution, which GANs fail to do. Furthermore, GMMs allow efficient inference and explicit representation of the underlying statistical structure. Finally, we discuss how GMMs can be used to generate sharp images.

We propose a simple, tractable lower bound on the mutual information contained in the joint generative density of any latent variable generative model: the GILBO (Generative Information Lower BOund). It offers a data-independent measure of the complexity of the learned latent variable description, giving the log of the effective description length. It is well-defined for both VAEs and GANs. We compute the GILBO for 800 GANs and VAEs each trained on four datasets (MNIST, FashionMNIST, CIFAR-10 and CelebA) and discuss the results.

We decompose the evidence lower bound to show the existence of a term measuring the total correlation between latent variables. We use this to motivate the beta-TCVAE (Total Correlation Variational Autoencoder) algorithm, a refinement and plug-in replacement of the beta-VAE for learning disentangled representations, requiring no additional hyperparameters during training. We further propose a principled classifier-free measure of disentanglement called the mutual information gap (MIG). We perform extensive quantitative and qualitative experiments, in both restricted and non-restricted settings, and show a strong relation between total correlation and disentanglement, when the model is trained using our framework.

We develop an efficient and provably no-regret Bayesian optimization (BO) algorithm for optimization of black-box functions in high dimensions. We assume a generalized additive model with possibly overlapping variable groups. When the groups do not overlap, we are able to provide the first provably no-regret \emph{polynomial time} (in the number of evaluations of the acquisition function) algorithm for solving high dimensional BO. To make the optimization efficient and feasible, we introduce a novel deterministic Fourier Features approximation based on numerical integration with detailed analysis for the squared exponential kernel. The error of this approximation decreases \emph{exponentially} with the number of features, and allows for a precise approximation of both posterior mean and variance. In addition, the kernel matrix inversion improves in its complexity from cubic to essentially linear in the number of data points measured in basic arithmetic operations.

Bayesian optimization usually assumes that a Bayesian prior is given. However, the strong theoretical guarantees in Bayesian optimization are often regrettably compromised in practice because of unknown parameters in the prior. In this paper, we adopt a variant of empirical Bayes and show that, by estimating the Gaussian process prior from offline data sampled from the same prior and constructing unbiased estimators of the posterior, variants of both GP-UCB and \emph{probability of improvement} achieve a near-zero regret bound, which decreases to a constant proportional to the observational noise as the number of offline data and the number of online evaluations increase. Empirically, we have verified our approach on challenging simulated robotic problems featuring task and motion planning.

In this paper, we consider the problem of Gaussian process (GP) optimization with an added robustness requirement: The returned point may be perturbed by an adversary, and we require the function value to remain as high as possible even after this perturbation. This problem is motivated by settings in which the underlying functions during optimization and implementation stages are different, or when one is interested in finding an entire region of good inputs rather than only a single point. We show that standard GP optimization algorithms do not exhibit the desired robustness properties, and provide a novel confidence-bound based algorithm StableOpt for this purpose. We rigorously establish the required number of samples for StableOpt to find a near-optimal point, and we complement this guarantee with an algorithm-independent lower bound. We experimentally demonstrate several potential applications of interest using real-world data sets, and we show that StableOpt consistently succeeds in finding a stable maximizer where several baseline methods fail.

We introduce collapsed compilation, a novel approximate inference algorithm for discrete probabilistic graphical models. It is a collapsed sampling algorithm that incrementally selects which variable to sample next based on the partial compila- tion obtained so far. This online collapsing, together with knowledge compilation inference on the remaining variables, naturally exploits local structure and context- specific independence in the distribution. These properties are used implicitly in exact inference, but are difficult to harness for approximate inference. More- over, by having a partially compiled circuit available during sampling, collapsed compilation has access to a highly effective proposal distribution for importance sampling. Our experimental evaluation shows that collapsed compilation performs well on standard benchmarks. In particular, when the amount of exact inference is equally limited, collapsed compilation is competitive with the state of the art, and outperforms it on several benchmarks.

Estimating the structure of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs, also known as Bayesian networks) is a challenging problem since the search space of DAGs is combinatorial and scales superexponentially with the number of nodes. Existing approaches rely on various local heuristics for enforcing the acyclicity constraint. In this paper, we introduce a fundamentally different strategy: we formulate the structure learning problem as a purely continuous optimization problem over real matrices that avoids this combinatorial constraint entirely. This is achieved by a novel characterization of acyclicity that is not only smooth but also exact. The resulting problem can be efficiently solved by standard numerical algorithms, which also makes implementation effortless. The proposed method outperforms existing ones, without imposing any structural assumptions on the graph such as bounded treewidth or in-degree.

Event datasets include events that occur irregularly over the timeline and are prevalent in numerous domains. We introduce proximal graphical event models (PGEM) as a representation of such datasets. PGEMs belong to a broader family of models that characterize relationships between various types of events, where the rate of occurrence of an event type depends only on whether or not its parents have occurred in the most recent history. The main advantage over the state of the art models is that they are entirely data driven and do not require additional inputs from the user, which can require knowledge of the domain such as choice of basis functions or hyperparameters in graphical event models. We theoretically justify our learning of optimal windows for parental history and the choices of parental sets, and the algorithm are sound and complete in terms of parent structure learning. We present additional efficient heuristics for learning PGEMs from data, demonstrating their effectiveness on synthetic and real datasets.

We present a novel extension of multi-output Gaussian processes for handling heterogeneous outputs. We assume that each output has its own likelihood function and use a vector-valued Gaussian process prior to jointly model the parameters in all likelihoods as latent functions. Our multi-output Gaussian process uses a covariance function with a linear model of coregionalisation form. Assuming conditional independence across the underlying latent functions together with an inducing variable framework, we are able to obtain tractable variational bounds amenable to stochastic variational inference. We illustrate the performance of the model on synthetic data and two real datasets: a human behavioral study and a demographic high-dimensional dataset.

Despite advances in scalable models, the inference tools used for Gaussian processes (GPs) have yet to fully capitalize on developments in computing hardware. We present an efficient and general approach to GP inference based on Blackbox Matrix-Matrix multiplication (BBMM). BBMM inference uses a modified batched version of the conjugate gradients algorithm to derive all terms for training and inference in a single call. BBMM reduces the asymptotic complexity of exact GP inference from O(n^3) to O(n^2). Adapting this algorithm to scalable approximations and complex GP models simply requires a routine for efficient matrix-matrix multiplication with the kernel and its derivative. In addition, BBMM uses a specialized preconditioner to substantially speed up convergence. In experiments we show that BBMM effectively uses GPU hardware to dramatically accelerate both exact GP inference and scalable approximations. Additionally, we provide GPyTorch, a software platform for scalable GP inference via BBMM, built on PyTorch.