Simple Local Models for Complex Dynamical Systems

We present a novel mathematical formalism for the idea of a "local model,'' a model of a potentially complex dynamical system that makes only certain predictions in only certain situations. As a result of its restricted responsibilities, a local model may be far simpler than a complete model of the system. We then show how one might combine several local models to produce a more detailed model. We demonstrate our ability to learn a collection of local models on a large-scale example and do a preliminary empirical comparison of learning a collection of local models and some other model learning methods.