AirMPA: A Meteorology-to-Pollution Adapter for Global Air Quality Forecasting

Accurate real-time forecasting of atmospheric pollutants is essential for reducing exposure risks and improving public health. Traditional numerical forecasting systems suffer from incomplete parameterizations, uncertain inputs, and high computational cost. Existing deep learning approaches improve efficiency, but often entangle meteorological and pollutant variables within unified forecasting frameworks, limiting flexibility and pollutant-specific representation learning. To address these challenges, we propose AirMPA, a decoupled autoregressive framework for meteorology-to-pollution forecasting. AirMPA predicts 13 atmospheric pollutants at 0.4$^\circ$ spatial resolution and 12-h temporal resolution using meteorological fields, emission priors, and historical pollutant concentrations. The model is built on an improved Swin-Transformer architecture with zonal release attention and dual-branch fusion, enabling more effective modeling of global transport continuity and heterogeneous pollutant dynamics. During training, AirMPA uses ERA5 reanalysis as meteorological forcing, while during inference it directly ingests forecast fields from external meteorological models, enabling stable autoregressive prediction up to 5 days ahead. Experiments show that AirMPA consistently outperforms Aurora and surpasses CAMS in approximately 90\% of pollutant--lead-time evaluation cases over the 5-day forecast horizon, while outperforming CAMS on all variables beyond 48 h. These results demonstrate the potential of decoupled meteorology-to-pollution forecasting for global air quality prediction.