MIRA: Mutual Information guided calibration for Reliable Test-Time Adaptation

Test-time adaptation updates a deployed model using only unlabeled target data, but standard entropy-based methods often rely on deterministic confidence and can reinforce overconfident errors under distribution shift. We propose MIRA, Mutual Information guided calibration for Reliable Test-Time Adaptation, a source-free online adaptation method that uses lightweight last-layer Gaussian perturbations to probe prediction reliability. For each target batch, MIRA reuses a single feature extraction pass and samples perturbed classifiers around the source classifier, forming an efficient local stochastic ensemble. Rather than fitting a Bayesian posterior, MIRA treats the perturbation scale as a local probing radius and selects a batch-specific scale using mutual information and prediction agreement. The resulting perturbation-sensitivity signal identifies predictions that are confident and locally stable under classifier perturbations, while suppressing brittle predictions with high stochastic disagreement. MIRA then performs adaptation with an MI-confidence weighted entropy loss, which down-weights perturbation-sensitive or low-confidence samples before they drive entropy minimization. This weighted loss reduces the influence of brittle predictions that can otherwise cause harmful adaptation under distribution shift. The method requires no source data, retraining, model ensembles, or offline posterior fitting, and can be applied as a plug-and-play modification to entropy-minimization TTA. Experiments on distribution-shift benchmarks show improvements in accuracy, calibration, and negative log-likelihood, suggesting that mutual-information-guided perturbation probing and weighted adaptation yield more robust online TTA than deterministic confidence.