Discovering Mechanistic Models of Neural Activity: System Identification in an in Silico Zebrafish

Constructing mechanistic models of neural circuits is a fundamental goal of neuroscience, yet verifying such models is limited by the lack of ground truth. To rigorously test model discovery, we establish an in silico testbed using neuromechanical simulations of a larval zebrafish as a transparent ground truth. We find that LLM-based tree search autonomously discovers predictive models that significantly outperform established forecasting baselines. However, in-distribution accuracy is a poor proxy for faithful system identification, as models exploit statistical shortcuts. Structural priors prove essential for enabling robust out-of-distribution generalization and recovery of interpretable mechanistic models. Our insights provide guidance for modeling real-world neural recordings and offer a broader template for AI-driven scientific discovery.