Bandeira et al. (2022) introduced the Franz-Parisi (FP) criterion for characterizing the computational hard phases in statistical detection problems. The FP criterion, based on an annealed version of the celebrated Franz-Parisi potential from statistical physics, was shown to be equivalent to low-degree polynomial (LDP) lower bounds for Gaussian additive models, thereby connecting two distinct approaches to understanding the computational hardness in statistical inference. In this paper, we propose a refined FP criterion that aims to better capture the geometric ``overlap" structure of statistical models. Our main result establishes that this optimized FP criterion is equivalent to Statistical Query (SQ) lower bounds---another foundational framework in computational complexity of statistical inference. Crucially, this equivalence holds under a mild, verifiable assumption satisfied by a broad class of statistical models, including Gaussian additive models, planted sparse models, as well as non-Gaussian component analysis (NGCA), single-index (SI) models, and convex truncation detection settings. For instance, in the case of convex truncation tasks, the assumption is equivalent with the Gaussian correlation inequality (Royen, 2014) from convex geometry. In addition to the above, our equivalence not only unifies and simplifies the derivation of several known SQ lower bounds—such as for the NGCA model (Diakonikolas et al., 2017) and the SI model (Damian et al., 2024)—but also yields new SQ lower bounds of independent interest, including for the computational gaps in mixed sparse linear regression (Arpino et al., 2023) and convex truncation (De et al., 2023).

A central challenge in machine learning is to understand how noise or measurement errors affect low-rank approximations, particularly in the spectral norm. This question is especially important in differentially private low-rank approximation, where one aims to preserve the top-$p$ structure of a data-derived matrix while ensuring privacy. Prior work often analyzes Frobenius norm error or changes in reconstruction quality, but these metrics can over- or under-estimate true subspace distortion. The spectral norm, by contrast, captures worst-case directional error and provides the strongest utility guarantees. We establish new high-probability spectral-norm perturbation bounds for symmetric matrices that refine the classical Eckart--Young--Mirsky theorem and explicitly capture interactions between a matrix $A \in \mathbb{R}^{n \times n}$ and an arbitrary symmetric perturbation $E$. Under mild eigengap and norm conditions, our bounds yield sharp estimates for $\| (A + E)_p - A_p \|$, where $A_p$ is the best rank-$p$ approximation of $A$, with improvements of up to a factor of $\sqrt{n}$. As an application, we derive improved utility guarantees for differentially private PCA, resolving an open problem in the literature. Our analysis relies on a novel contour bootstrapping method from complex analysis and extends it to a broad class of spectral functionals, including polynomials and matrix exponentials. Empirical results on real-world datasets confirm that our bounds closely track the actual spectral error under diverse perturbation regimes.

This paper addresses the Bayesian optimization problem (also referred to as the Bayesian setting of the Gaussian process bandit), where the learner seeks to minimize the regret under a function drawn from a known Gaussian process (GP). Under a Mat\'ern kernel with some extent of smoothness, we show that the Gaussian process upper confidence bound (GP-UCB) algorithm achieves $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{T})$ cumulative regret with high probability. Furthermore, our analysis yields $O(\sqrt{T \ln^2 T})$ regret under a squared exponential kernel. These results fill the gap between the existing regret upper bound of GP-UCB and the current best upper bound provided by Scarlett [2018]. The key idea in our proof is to capture the concentration behavior of the input sequence realized by GP-UCB, enabling us to handle GP's information gain in a refined manner.