In 2021, we commissioned forecasters to predict progress on ML benchmarks, including the MATH dataset for mathematical problem-solving. Progress on MATH ended up being much faster than predicted. I'll discuss what we should and shouldn't take away from this, my own predictions for future progress, and general implications for predicting future developments in ML.
Jacob Steinhardt (UC Berkeley)
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Sumanth Dathathri · Krishnamurthy Dvijotham · Alexey Kurakin · Aditi Raghunathan · Jonathan Uesato · Rudy Bunel · Shreya Shankar · Jacob Steinhardt · Ian Goodfellow · Percy Liang · Pushmeet Kohli