`

Timezone: »

 
Learned Benchmarks for Subseasonal Forecasting
Soukayna Mouatadid · Paulo Orenstein · Genevieve Flaspohler · Miruna Oprescu · Judah Cohen · Franklyn Wang · Sean Knight · Maria Geogdzhayeva · Sam Levang · Ernest Fraenkel · Lester Mackey

Tue Dec 14 09:49 AM -- 09:59 AM (PST) @ None
Event URL: https://www.climatechange.ai/papers/neurips2021/30 »

We develop a subseasonal forecasting toolkit of simple learned benchmark models that outperform both operational practice and state-of-the-art machine learning and deep learning methods. Our new models include (a) Climatology++, an adaptive alternative to climatology that, for precipitation, is 9% more accurate and 250\% more skillful than the United States operational Climate Forecasting System (CFSv2); (b) CFSv2++, a learned CFSv2 correction that improves temperature and precipitation accuracy by 7-8% and skill by 50-275%; and (c) Persistence++, an augmented persistence model that combines CFSv2 forecasts with lagged measurements to improve temperature and precipitation accuracy by 6-9% and skill by 40-130%. Across the contiguous U.S., these models consistently outperform standard meteorological baselines, state-of-the-art learning methods, and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ensemble. Overall, we find that augmenting traditional forecasting approaches with learned enhancements yields an effective and computationally inexpensive strategy for building the next generation of subseasonal forecasting benchmarks.

Author Information

Soukayna Mouatadid (University of Toronto)
Paulo Orenstein (Instituto de Matematica Pura e Aplicada)
Genevieve Flaspohler (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
Miruna Oprescu (Microsoft Research)
Judah Cohen (AER)
Franklyn Wang (Harvard University)
Sean Knight (MIT)
Maria Geogdzhayeva (MIT)
Sam Levang (Salient Predictions)
Ernest Fraenkel (MIT)
Lester Mackey (Microsoft Research)

More from the Same Authors

  • 2021 : Estimating the Long-Term Effects of Novel Treatments »
    Keith Battocchi · Maggie Hei · Greg Lewis · Miruna Oprescu · Vasilis Syrgkanis
  • 2021 : Bounding Wasserstein distance with couplings »
    Niloy Biswas · Lester Mackey
  • 2021 : Learned Benchmarks for Subseasonal Forecasting »
    Soukayna Mouatadid · Paulo Orenstein · Genevieve Flaspohler · Miruna Oprescu · Judah Cohen · Franklyn Wang · Sean Knight · Maria Geogdzhayeva · Sam Levang · Ernest Fraenkel · Lester Mackey
  • 2021 : Invited Talk 5 Q&A »
    Lester Mackey
  • 2021 : Your Model is Wrong (but Might Still Be Useful) »
    Lester Mackey
  • 2021 Poster: Estimating the Long-Term Effects of Novel Treatments »
    Keith Battocchi · Eleanor Dillon · Maggie Hei · Greg Lewis · Miruna Oprescu · Vasilis Syrgkanis
  • 2020 Poster: Belief-Dependent Macro-Action Discovery in POMDPs using the Value of Information »
    Genevieve Flaspohler · Nick Roy · John Fisher III
  • 2019 : Coffee break, posters, and 1-on-1 discussions »
    Julius von Kügelgen · David Rohde · Candice Schumann · Grace Charles · Victor Veitch · Vira Semenova · Mert Demirer · Vasilis Syrgkanis · Suraj Nair · Aahlad Puli · Masatoshi Uehara · Aditya Gopalan · Yi Ding · Ignavier Ng · Khashayar Khosravi · Eli Sherman · Shuxi Zeng · Aleksander Wieczorek · Hao Liu · Kyra Gan · Jason Hartford · Miruna Oprescu · Alexander D'Amour · Jörn Boehnke · Yuta Saito · Théophile Griveau-Billion · Chirag Modi · Shyngys Karimov · Jeroen Berrevoets · Logan Graham · Imke Mayer · Dhanya Sridhar · Issa Dahabreh · Alan Mishler · Duncan Wadsworth · Khizar Qureshi · Rahul Ladhania · Gota Morishita · Paul Welle
  • 2019 : Poster Spotlights »
    Théophile Griveau-Billion · Rahul Singh · Zichen (Vincent) Zhang · Ciarán Lee · Jesse Krijthe · Grace Charles · Vira Semenova · Rahul Ladhania · Miruna Oprescu
  • 2019 : Lunch + Poster Session »
    Frederik Gerzer · Bill Yang Cai · Pieter-Jan Hoedt · Kelly Kochanski · Soo Kyung Kim · Yunsung Lee · Sunghyun Park · Sharon Zhou · Martin Gauch · Jonathan Wilson · Joyjit Chatterjee · Shamindra Shrotriya · Dimitri Papadimitriou · Christian Schön · Valentina Zantedeschi · Gabriella Baasch · Willem Waegeman · Gautier Cosne · Dara Farrell · Brendan Lucier · Letif Mones · Caleb Robinson · Tafara Chitsiga · Victor Kristof · Hari Prasanna Das · Yimeng Min · Alexandra Puchko · Alexandra Luccioni · Kyle Story · Jason Hickey · Yue Hu · Björn Lütjens · Zhecheng Wang · Renzhi Jing · Genevieve Flaspohler · Jingfan Wang · Saumya Sinha · Qinghu Tang · Armi Tiihonen · Ruben Glatt · Muge Komurcu · Jan Drgona · Juan Gomez-Romero · Ashish Kapoor · Dylan J Fitzpatrick · Alireza Rezvanifar · Adrian Albert · Olya (Olga) Irzak · Kara Lamb · Ankur Mahesh · Kiwan Maeng · Frederik Kratzert · Sorelle Friedler · Niccolo Dalmasso · Alex Robson · Lindiwe Malobola · Lucas Maystre · Yu-wen Lin · Surya Karthik Mukkavili · Brian Hutchinson · Alexandre Lacoste · Yanbing Wang · Zhengcheng Wang · Yinda Zhang · Victoria Preston · Jacob Pettit · Draguna Vrabie · Miguel Molina-Solana · Tonio Buonassisi · Andrew Annex · Tunai P Marques · Catalin Voss · Johannes Rausch · Max Evans
  • 2019 Poster: Machine Learning Estimation of Heterogeneous Treatment Effects with Instruments »
    Vasilis Syrgkanis · Victor Lei · Miruna Oprescu · Maggie Hei · Keith Battocchi · Greg Lewis
  • 2019 Spotlight: Machine Learning Estimation of Heterogeneous Treatment Effects with Instruments »
    Vasilis Syrgkanis · Victor Lei · Miruna Oprescu · Maggie Hei · Keith Battocchi · Greg Lewis
  • 2018 Poster: Global Non-convex Optimization with Discretized Diffusions »
    Murat Erdogdu · Lester Mackey · Ohad Shamir