Timezone: »
Poster
Distribution-free inference for regression: discrete, continuous, and in between
Yonghoon Lee · Rina Barber
In data analysis problems where we are not able to rely on distributional assumptions, what types of inference guarantees can still be obtained? Many popular methods, such as holdout methods, cross-validation methods, and conformal prediction, are able to provide distribution-free guarantees for predictive inference, but the problem of providing inference for the underlying regression function (for example, inference on the conditional mean $\mathbb{E}[Y|X]$) is more challenging. In the setting where the features $X$ are continuously distributed, recent work has established that any confidence interval for $\mathbb{E}[Y|X]$ must have non-vanishing width, even as sample size tends to infinity. At the other extreme, if $X$ takes only a small number of possible values, then inference on $\mathbb{E}[Y|X]$ is trivial to achieve. In this work, we study the problem in settings in between these two extremes. We find that there are several distinct regimes in between the finite setting and the continuous setting, where vanishing-width confidence intervals are achievable if and only if the effective support size of the distribution of $X$ is smaller than the square of the sample size.
Author Information
Yonghoon Lee (The University of Chicago)
Rina Barber (University of Chicago)
More from the Same Authors
-
2023 Poster: Conformalized matrix completion »
Yu Gui · Rina Barber · Cong Ma -
2020 Poster: Predictive inference is free with the jackknife+-after-bootstrap »
Byol Kim · Chen Xu · Rina Barber -
2019 Poster: Conformal Prediction Under Covariate Shift »
Ryan Tibshirani · Rina Barber · Emmanuel Candes · Aaditya Ramdas -
2016 Poster: Selective inference for group-sparse linear models »
Fan Yang · Rina Barber · Prateek Jain · John Lafferty -
2015 Poster: Robust PCA with compressed data »
Wooseok Ha · Rina Barber