Skip to yearly menu bar Skip to main content


Poster

Bayesian Belief Polarization

Alan Jern · Kai-min K Chang · Charles Kemp


Abstract:

Situations in which people with opposing prior beliefs observe the same evidence and then strengthen those existing beliefs are frequently offered as evidence of human irrationality. This phenomenon, termed belief polarization, is typically assumed to be non-normative. We demonstrate, however, that a variety of cases of belief polarization are consistent with a Bayesian approach to belief revision. Simulation results indicate that belief polarization is not only possible but relatively common within the class of Bayesian models that we consider.

Live content is unavailable. Log in and register to view live content